The Oscars 2015

Last year, I scored 23/24 categories in a ceremony that arguably had fewer close races, missing only in the Animated Short category (who foresaw Mr. Hublot pulling the upset over Disney?).  This year, I think Disney's Feast, which was shown along with Big Hero 6, will win Oscar gold.  This will be Disney's consolation prize when it loses the Animated Feature award to Dreamworks's How to Train Your Dragon 2.

This year's race has proven difficult to predict, especially with Birdman's late victories at SAG, DGA and PGA, then Boyhood's redemption at BAFTA.  The Picture and Director categories may split for the third year in a row and it could split in either direction.  But despite Birdman's late resurgence, it is appearing unlikely that Michael Keaton will be able to upset Eddie Redmayne.

Emcee extraordinaire Neil Patrick Harris hosts this year's ceremony, which will be filled with musical performances. Here are my full predictions, including who will win, should win (in my opinion), and honorable mentions for other standouts in the category:

Best Picture Likelihood of Winning
1. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Whiplash
5. American Sniper
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. The Theory of Everything

Best Picture Personal Ranking
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
4. Boyhood
5. The Theory of Everything
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. American Sniper

Best Director
Will win/Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman & Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress
Will win/Should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Honorable Mention: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything & Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Best Actor
Will win/Should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Honorable Mentions: Michael Keaton, Birdman & Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Supporting Actress
Will win/Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor
Will win/Should win: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Honorable Mention: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Honorable Mentions: Birdman & Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win/Should win: Whiplash
Honorable Mention: The Theory of Everything

Best Cinematography
Will win/Should win: Birdman

Best Costume Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing
Will win/Should win: Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Whiplash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Production Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Score
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar

Best Song
Will win: Glory, Selma
Should win: Lost Stars, Begin Again

Best Sound Editing
Will win/Should win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing
Will win/Should win: Whiplash

Best Visual Effects
Will win/Should win: Interstellar
Honorable Mention: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature
Will win/Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Honorable Mention: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary
Will win: Citizenfour

Best Foreign Film
Will win: Ida, Poland
Honorable Mention: Relatos Salvajes (Wild Tales), Argentina

Best Animated Short
Will win: Feast

Best Live Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Check out the article I wrote for the JHU News-Letter with some of my predictions for the Oscars: http://www.jhunewsletter.com/2015/02/19/best-picture-nominees-compete-for-2015-oscars-18833/

Update: So 18/24 isn't so bad but definitely not as well as I was hoping for.  Birdman is the big winner tonight, with Alejandro Inarritu winning 3 statues himself.  Boyhood goes home with just one award for Patricia Arquette, leaving Richard Linklater nothing.  And Wes Anderson's film gets a surprise win in score to complement its artistic awards, but Wes Anderson himself goes home empty handed.  And NPH was great as expected.