96th Academy Awards (2024)

In the year of Barbenheimer, I think it's safe to say the movies are back. Barbie was indisputably the short-term victor, but Oppenheimer will have the last laugh. And this was in a year Hollywood shut down thanks to twin strikes by WGA and SAG. Shawn Fain may be the face of labor in America, but Fran Drescher's rousing speech that made the rounds on social media is the defining image of the labor movement. She has the advantage of being an actor of course, but I was genuinely moved by her advocacy for the cause. And even more than The Nanny, this will be her legacy. A note to Jimmy Kimmel; in reference to Anatomy of a Fall, he should deliver his monologue with an instrumental version of 50 Cent's P.I.M.P. blasting over him. 

My Top 10:

1. A Thousand and One
2. Past Lives
3. The Boy and the Heron
4. The Holdovers
5. American Fiction
6. Oppenheimer
7. Monster
8. Asteroid City
9. How to Blow Up a Pipeline
10. Killers of the Flower Moon
11. Poor Things
12. All of Us Strangers

Honorable Mentions: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, Blackberry, You Hurt My Feelings, The Promised Land, Dicks: The Musical

Best Picture:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers
6. Anatomy of a Fall
7. Past Lives
8. The Zone of Interest
   
9. American Fiction
10. Maestro

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Best Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Honorable Mention: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor:
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Honorable Mention: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Honorable Mention: Charles Melton, May December

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Past Lives

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Barbie

Best Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win/Should Win: Maestro

Best Production Design:
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Honorable Mention: Asteroid City

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer
Honorable Mention: The Boy and the Heron

Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: What Was I Made For? by Billie Eilish, Barbie

Best Sound:
Will Win/Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: The Creator

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best International Film:
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: Perfect Days

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: The ABC of Book Banning
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win/Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Result: I scored a paltry 15/23, placing seventh in my Oscars pool (congrats to Stephen with 20!). Emma Stone ended up breaking the 3-way tie. I'm not mad though about my errors because I loved the American Fiction screenplay, and the Poor Things production design and costume design and makeup/hairstyles and The Last Repair Shop and the Godzilla Minus One VFX. Also kind of hilarious that Hayao Miyazaki and WEs Anderon didn't show up.

I think it is notable that five distinct foreign language features won Oscars outside the International category: Anatomy of a Fall (screenplay), The Zone of Interest (sound), The Boy and the Heron (animation), 20 Days in Mariupol (documentary) and Godzilla: Minus One (VFX), reflecting the real impact the internationalization of the voting body over the last several years has had. Love that Justine Triet walked up to P.I.M.P in her Nicky-Kidman-at-an-AMC-getup.

I think the other story here is the non-story that Barbie's snubs became. Though there was much uproar over the snubs of Greta Gerwig for director and Margot Robbie for lead actor at the time nominations came out, it did not result in voters trying to make up for it in the final voting. Even Jimmy Kimmel noted that it was only the fault of the folks in the room. In the below-the-line craft categories where I had predicted Barbie victories, they lost all of them to Poor Things (probably an early indicator that Emma would topple Lily). The lone category Gerwig was nominated for in adapted screenplay ended up going to American Fiction, something of an upset, but a clear indication that the voters were not going for Barbie.  

95th Academy Awards (2023)

It's a landmark year for Asians in the movies. Sure we had Minari, The Farewell, Crazy Rich Asians, Parasite won it all in a memorable surprise. But the arrival of Everything Everywhere All at Once, both a indie box office smash and now the prohibitive front runner, signals a new era. The movie boasts no fewer than 4 acting nominees, three of whom are of Asian descent, including Ke Huy Quan who returns to the screen after two decades unable to find work in front of the camera in Hollywood. The legendary James Hong got a moment of glory at the SAG Awards too. And let's not forget Hong Chau nominated for The Whale. The NYT even ran a feature on the unprecedented number of Asian nominees across the board. It has been a long time since the front runner for Best Picture has been such a popular film, and I don't know that the nominees have ever included so many box office successes--it's an exciting year.

Tyler's Top 10:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Tar
3. Decision to Leave
4. The Fabelmans
5. Armageddon Time
6. Petite Maman
7. Triangle of Sadness
8. The Northman
9. Aftersun
10. Turning Red
    

Honorable Mentions: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Top Gun: Maverick, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, The Quiet Girl, Fire of Love, Living, Navalny, Avatar: The Way of Water, Puss in Boots:The Last Wish, Vengeance

Best Picture (prediction):

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Tar
8. Triangle of Sadness
9. Elvis
10. Women Talking

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Cate Blanchett, Tar

Best Actor
Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Living

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Tar

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Empire of Light

Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Babylon

Best Film Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: The Whale

Best Production Design
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Score
Will Win/Should Win: Babylon

Best Original Song
Will Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR
Should Win: Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound
Will Win/Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Should Win: Turning Red

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love

Best International Film
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Should Win: The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Best Animated Short
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win: Ice Merchants

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Should Win: Haulout

Best Live Action Short
Will Win/Should Win: Le Pupille

Update: 17/23, just enough to win my Oscars pool.  I hosted a little Oscar party with a themed menu. It was a big hit, if I do say so myself. It was a great ceremony with lots of memorable wins for Asians/Asian-Americans, including Judy Chin for Best Makeup and Hairstyling who went to middle school with mom. EEAAO came away with a record six statues above-the-line, and A24, no longer the indie upstart, won all six of the top awards. Hopefully we can expect to see more of these beautiful, wonderful, diverse, niche movies being made.

The Oscars (2018)

After the fiasco that was the presentation of Best Picture last year, Jimmy Kimmel is back (and I think Pwc is too). This year's race is wide open. The Shape of Water is the leader with 13 nominations. But Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won the Golden Globe over The Shape of Water. On the one hand, Three Billboards does not have a directing nomination which should be a death knell. But remember Argo? Argo won Best Picture arguably BECAUSE voters thought Ben Affleck was snubbed and voters wanted to honor it elsewhere. That is conceivable this year too.

Best Picture
My Top Films of 2017: 

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Faces Places
4. Lady Bird
5. The Shape of Water
6. The Florida Project
7. The Meyerowitz Stories: New and Selected
8. Get Out
9. The Disaster Artist
10. Chasing Coral
11. Columbus

My Ranking:

1. Dunkirk
2. Lady Bird
3. The Shape of Water
4. Get Out
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. The Post
7. Phantom Thread
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Darkest Hour
   

My Predictions:

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour

Best Director:
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Honorable Mention: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Best Actor:
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Honorable Mention: Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

Best Actress:
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Honorable Mention: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win & Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project


Best Supporting Actress: 
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: The Disaster Artist

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Get Out
Honorable Mention: Lady Bird

Best Cinematography:
Will Win & Should Win: Blade Runner 2049


Best Costume Design:
Will Win & Should Win: Phantom Thread


Best Film Editing:
Will Win: Dunkirk
Honorable Mention: Baby Driver

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win & Should Win: Darkest Hour


Best Production Design:
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Honorable Mention: Blade Runner 2049

Best Score:
Will Win & Should Win: The Shape of Water
Honorable Mentions: Phantom Thread and Dunkirk

Best Song: (maybe the toughest category this year and I don't really love any of them)
Will Win: Mighty River, Mudbound

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: Dunkirk
Possible Spoiler: Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Honorable Mention: Blade Runner 2049

Best Documentary:
Will Win: Icarus
Should Win: Faces Places

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Square, Sweden

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win & Should Win: Coco

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Dear Basketball

Best Documentary Short: 
Will Win: Heroin(e)


Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary

Update: I scored 18/24 this year, which is a respectable 75% but...I feel like my mistakes were avoidable. If I had been less stubborn and just picked the favorites to win, I'd have a higher score. I made some easy mistakes...Always next year

My Oscars Predictions 2017

ABC finally got Jimmy Kimmel to host the Oscars. Being abroad this year, I don't know if I'll be able to watch the Oscars. I've missed all the other award shows this year. But that being said, I really ought to be able to find it. As global events in 2017, awards shows should be streamable live. If you have exclusive broadcasting rights then it is irresponsible and downright annoying to not give me live access from Italy.

This last week, I've been hurrying to watch the rest of the major nominees. And I finished just in time, seeing all the nominees from the top six categories. Almost all the screenwriting nominees too, save for 20th Century Women. We've gone to the Cineteca di Bologna every week this month. They show films in the original language there instead of dubbing them like they do everywhere else in Italy. It's worth the 30 minute trek across the city, plus it only costs 4.50 for students. This week I saw Fences, and it was my 1000th film logged on Letterboxd. It's a big milestone film for me.

Having gone to Cannes this year, I saw a lot of movies, a lot of very high quality movies and foreign movies. As a result, some of my top 10 is nowhere to be found at the Oscars, like Clash, The Handmaiden and After the Storm. With a record-tying 14 nominations, La La Land is the front-runner by far, and with very good reason. For anyone counting, I'm predicting 10 wins for La La Land, that's losses for Ryan Gosling, costume, Audition and Original Screenplay. The record is 11 for Titanic, Ben-Hur and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. But perhaps 10 is appropriate, because that's how many West Side Story got (one of my other favorites).

Best Picture (in likelihood of winning):
1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Arrival
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences

Best Picture (personal ranking):
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Fences
6. Lion
7. Manchester by the Sea
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Second Choice: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
The wunderkind will become the youngest ever winner of the Best Director Oscar at just 32. Jenkins was arguably more emotionally invested in his personal story, so I feel bad that he isn't going to win this one. Denis Villeneuve will one day get his, but this is not his year.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Should Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Natalie Portman is just divine, but Emma Stone's character is every member of the acting branch. And don't get me started on Elle. Sure, Isabelle Huppert has never been nominated for an Oscar, but Elle was just offensive on so many levels, surely liberal Hollywood felt the same way?

Best Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Second Choice: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
This is probably the closest acting race. Affleck was the favorite for a long time, especially before the sexual harassment allegations (years old allegations sunk Nate Parker's chances and I suspect it will pull down Affleck too), but Denzel is the master and has already won a Tony for this role. Some have criticized him for being too theatrical, but I don't see anything wrong with that.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Second Choice: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Though it's arguably a co-leading role, Davis already has a Tony for this role and will finally have her Oscar after Meryl stole her Oscar for the Help.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Second Choice: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
He may only be in a third of the film, but his performance is very affecting.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
This will be the consolation award for Barry Jenkins.

Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Hell or High Water
This is tough one. My gut says go with the La La Land bandwagon, but I think voters will choose to honor Manchester by the Sea here, a consolation prize for Kenneth Lonergan. Chazelle will have his chance to go up on stage for Direction. The Lobster fell apart in the second half. And I haven't seen 20th Century Women yet.

Cinematography:
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Silence
La La Land is just so beautifully shot that it can't lose. But I think Silence should win; it's not easy to make torture look so good.

Costume Design:
Will Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I haven't seen all the films in this category, but I'm picking the legendary Colleen Atwood.

Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
I didn't see A Man Called Ove, but I think it must take something really special for a foreign film to get nominated in a below-the-line category. The first Star Trek movie actually won this award, if anyone remembers.

Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
Because did you see the Griffith Observatory and the party and Los Angeles? I haven't seen Passengers yet.

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
This is probably the surest award of the night cause it's a musical. I haven't heard Passengers, but all the rest of the nominees are all beautiful in their own way.

Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: City of Stars (La La Land)
I really want to see Lin Manuel Miranda win an EGOT for his song from Moana, and maybe he will if La La Land splits the vote, but I suspect he'll have more chances in the future. This is La La Land's show.

Sound Editing:
Will Win: La La Land
This is typically the loud blow-em-up category, good for Hacksaw Ridge, but I think voters will just vote La La Land down the line. I haven't seen Deepwater Horizon.

Sound Mixing:
Will Win: La La Land
I haven't seen all the nominees, but I think the musical will win the sound mixing award.

Visual Effects:
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Yes, literally the whole Jungle Book is visual effects and it looks so darn real. But it's very rare an animation is nominated for visual effects and they do some pretty amazing things too.

Animated Feature:
Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
I didn't see Moana yet, but it has been an excellent year for animation, especially in a year when the Pixar heir isn't nominated, nor Your Name (directed by the supposed new Miyazaki). I loved My Life as a Courgette, but Kubo and the Two Strings was amazing. Zootopia was great too, but more typical.

Documentary Feature:
Will Win: 13th
I've only seen 13th. I know the front runner is the towering epic OJ, but how many people actually sat through the whole thing? I think a lot of people won't vote for it because it's TV disguised as a movie. Plus, they snubbed Ava Duvernay for Selma a few years back.

Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Should Win: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
I haven't seen all of the films in this category. But Toni Erdmann was actually the funniest movie I've ever seen. In a normal presidency it would win, but Asghar Faradhi boycotting the Oscars is a better story. I think there will be a whole lot of protest votes for him in liberal Hollywood. Moreover, South Korea didn't submit The Handmaiden, Japan didn't submit After the Storm, and Egypt's The Clash wasn't nominated, some of the best movies of the year.

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Borrowed Time
I only saw Borrowed Time and Piper and both were great.

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: Watani My Homeland
Should Win: Extremis
Watani is the only one I didn't see. But I've heard some very good things about it. Plus Syria is in the news nonstop. Extremis was the best one I saw. It was really powerful. Joe's Violin was powerful too, and I usually wouldn't bet against the Holocaust movie, but it was a little rougher around the edges. I fell asleep watching The White Helmets, sorry. And 4.1 Miles could've come straight from a 60 Minutes profile.

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: La Femme et la TGV
Haven't seen any of them so your guess is as good as mine.

Results: I scored a dismal 14/24. It was almost unthinkable that La La Land would lose the top prize but Moonlight was at least a worthy winner (though the whole envelope mishap really undermined the surprising nature of the win). I kind of saw it coming when La La Land lost both sound categories and then the film editing category too. That was a bad omen. I thought Jimmy Kimmel did very well as host. Some were predicting that Barry Jenkins would win director and La La Land would win Best Picture, but few were predicting a split the other way. Side note, I think John Legend is fine but he John Legend-ified the two songs from La La Land, and I did not like his rendition. His style is distinctive and it didn't work for these songs. And on another note, shame works. How do you get Hollywood to vote for people of color? Shame them and don't stop. There is work still to be done.