This last week, I've been hurrying to watch the rest of the major nominees. And I finished just in time, seeing all the nominees from the top six categories. Almost all the screenwriting nominees too, save for 20th Century Women. We've gone to the Cineteca di Bologna every week this month. They show films in the original language there instead of dubbing them like they do everywhere else in Italy. It's worth the 30 minute trek across the city, plus it only costs 4.50 for students. This week I saw Fences, and it was my 1000th film logged on Letterboxd. It's a big milestone film for me.
Having gone to Cannes this year, I saw a lot of movies, a lot of very high quality movies and foreign movies. As a result, some of my top 10 is nowhere to be found at the Oscars, like Clash, The Handmaiden and After the Storm. With a record-tying 14 nominations, La La Land is the front-runner by far, and with very good reason. For anyone counting, I'm predicting 10 wins for La La Land, that's losses for Ryan Gosling, costume, Audition and Original Screenplay. The record is 11 for Titanic, Ben-Hur and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. But perhaps 10 is appropriate, because that's how many West Side Story got (one of my other favorites).
Best Picture (in likelihood of winning):
1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Arrival
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences
Best Picture (personal ranking):
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Fences
6. Lion
7. Manchester by the Sea
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Second Choice: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
The wunderkind will become the youngest ever winner of the Best Director Oscar at just 32. Jenkins was arguably more emotionally invested in his personal story, so I feel bad that he isn't going to win this one. Denis Villeneuve will one day get his, but this is not his year.
Best Actress:
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Should Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Natalie Portman is just divine, but Emma Stone's character is every member of the acting branch. And don't get me started on Elle. Sure, Isabelle Huppert has never been nominated for an Oscar, but Elle was just offensive on so many levels, surely liberal Hollywood felt the same way?
Best Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Second Choice: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
This is probably the closest acting race. Affleck was the favorite for a long time, especially before the sexual harassment allegations (years old allegations sunk Nate Parker's chances and I suspect it will pull down Affleck too), but Denzel is the master and has already won a Tony for this role. Some have criticized him for being too theatrical, but I don't see anything wrong with that.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Second Choice: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Though it's arguably a co-leading role, Davis already has a Tony for this role and will finally have her Oscar after Meryl stole her Oscar for the Help.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Second Choice: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
He may only be in a third of the film, but his performance is very affecting.
Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
This will be the consolation award for Barry Jenkins.
Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Hell or High Water
This is tough one. My gut says go with the La La Land bandwagon, but I think voters will choose to honor Manchester by the Sea here, a consolation prize for Kenneth Lonergan. Chazelle will have his chance to go up on stage for Direction. The Lobster fell apart in the second half. And I haven't seen 20th Century Women yet.
Cinematography:
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Silence
La La Land is just so beautifully shot that it can't lose. But I think Silence should win; it's not easy to make torture look so good.
Costume Design:
Will Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I haven't seen all the films in this category, but I'm picking the legendary Colleen Atwood.
Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
I didn't see A Man Called Ove, but I think it must take something really special for a foreign film to get nominated in a below-the-line category. The first Star Trek movie actually won this award, if anyone remembers.
Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
Because did you see the Griffith Observatory and the party and Los Angeles? I haven't seen Passengers yet.
Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
This is probably the surest award of the night cause it's a musical. I haven't heard Passengers, but all the rest of the nominees are all beautiful in their own way.
Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: City of Stars (La La Land)
I really want to see Lin Manuel Miranda win an EGOT for his song from Moana, and maybe he will if La La Land splits the vote, but I suspect he'll have more chances in the future. This is La La Land's show.
Sound Editing:
Will Win: La La Land
This is typically the loud blow-em-up category, good for Hacksaw Ridge, but I think voters will just vote La La Land down the line. I haven't seen Deepwater Horizon.
Sound Mixing:
Will Win: La La Land
I haven't seen all the nominees, but I think the musical will win the sound mixing award.
Visual Effects:
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Yes, literally the whole Jungle Book is visual effects and it looks so darn real. But it's very rare an animation is nominated for visual effects and they do some pretty amazing things too.
Animated Feature:
Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
I didn't see Moana yet, but it has been an excellent year for animation, especially in a year when the Pixar heir isn't nominated, nor Your Name (directed by the supposed new Miyazaki). I loved My Life as a Courgette, but Kubo and the Two Strings was amazing. Zootopia was great too, but more typical.
Documentary Feature:
Will Win: 13th
I've only seen 13th. I know the front runner is the towering epic OJ, but how many people actually sat through the whole thing? I think a lot of people won't vote for it because it's TV disguised as a movie. Plus, they snubbed Ava Duvernay for Selma a few years back.
Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Should Win: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
I haven't seen all of the films in this category. But Toni Erdmann was actually the funniest movie I've ever seen. In a normal presidency it would win, but Asghar Faradhi boycotting the Oscars is a better story. I think there will be a whole lot of protest votes for him in liberal Hollywood. Moreover, South Korea didn't submit The Handmaiden, Japan didn't submit After the Storm, and Egypt's The Clash wasn't nominated, some of the best movies of the year.
Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Borrowed Time
I only saw Borrowed Time and Piper and both were great.
Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: Watani My Homeland
Should Win: Extremis
Watani is the only one I didn't see. But I've heard some very good things about it. Plus Syria is in the news nonstop. Extremis was the best one I saw. It was really powerful. Joe's Violin was powerful too, and I usually wouldn't bet against the Holocaust movie, but it was a little rougher around the edges. I fell asleep watching The White Helmets, sorry. And 4.1 Miles could've come straight from a 60 Minutes profile.
Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: La Femme et la TGV
Haven't seen any of them so your guess is as good as mine.
Results: I scored a dismal 14/24. It was almost unthinkable that La La Land would lose the top prize but Moonlight was at least a worthy winner (though the whole envelope mishap really undermined the surprising nature of the win). I kind of saw it coming when La La Land lost both sound categories and then the film editing category too. That was a bad omen. I thought Jimmy Kimmel did very well as host. Some were predicting that Barry Jenkins would win director and La La Land would win Best Picture, but few were predicting a split the other way. Side note, I think John Legend is fine but he John Legend-ified the two songs from La La Land, and I did not like his rendition. His style is distinctive and it didn't work for these songs. And on another note, shame works. How do you get Hollywood to vote for people of color? Shame them and don't stop. There is work still to be done.
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