My Emmy Picks 2014

Predicting the Emmys is very difficult considering the shear amount of high quality TV nowadays.  This is really a testament to the depth of the medium of television.  There are 26 categories at this Monday's Emmy telecast:

Acting

Lead Actor in a Comedy: Jim Parsons (Big Bang Theory) should repeat here in a relatively weak category

Lead Actress in a Comedy: Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), long overdue, should finally win her maiden Emmy though I would not count out Julia Louise Dreyfus (Veep) to win her third in a row

Supporting Actor in a Comedy: I pick Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family) to win his first but watch out for Tony Hale (Veep) to repeat

Supporting Actress in a Comedy: Allison Janney (Mom) also won this year for her role in Masters of Sex and could win a second, but don't underestimate the influence of Modern Family with its two-time winner Julie Bowen

Lead Actor in a Drama: It's a dead heat between Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) and Matthew McConaughey (True Detective) and I think McConaughey will win over Emmy voters though Bryan Cranston is probably the most deserving

Lead Actress in a Drama: Juliana Margulies (The Good Wife) gave her best performance yet and this will be the consolation prize for the snub in the Drama series category, but keep an eye out for Robin Wright (House of Cards)

Supporting Actor in a Drama: I see a three way race between Josh Charles (The Good Wife), Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad), and Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones).  I think Emmy voters will not pass on the chance to award Paul one last time but I would be happy to see Charles win for his final season

Supporting Actress in a Drama: Remember when Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) used to be a dead lock? But this is Anna Gunn's (Breaking Bad) race to lose.  A win for Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) would also be acceptable

Lead Actor in a Movie/Miniseries: In a very strong field, Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo) is the favorite to win

Lead Actress in a Movie/Miniseries: Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful) won a Tony for playing the same role on Broadway

Supporting Actor in a Movie/Miniseries: Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart) makes a huge transformation for his role as a man with AIDS; I would also look out for Martin Freeman (Sherlock) who could win a consolation prize here since he will likely lose in the the Lead Actor category to his costar in Fargo

Supporting Actress in a Movie/Miniseries: Allison Tolman (Fargo) has gotten the most buzz and the trio from American Horror Story will likely split voters paving the way for Tolman

Writing

Comedy: Orange is the New Black

Drama: Breaking Bad (Ozymandias, though it could easily be Felina)

Variety Special: 67th Tony Awards

Miniseries/Movie: The Normal Heart

Directing

Comedy: Modern Family

Drama: Breaking Bad

Variety Special: The Kennedy Center Honors

Miniseries/Movie: The Normal Heart 

Programs

Comedy: This probably comes down to a race between perennial favorite and four-time reigning champ Modern Family and the newcomer with the momentum Orange is the New Black.  I love Modern Family, but I'm betting on Black.

Drama: This category will mirror the Lead Actor category, but don't let the outcome of that race influence this one. Breaking Bad should edge out True Detective for its superb final season that wrapped everything up so perfectly.  Breaking Bad will go down in history as one of the best shows ever and I imagine they will go out on a high note. 

Variety: Last year, The Colbert Report ended The Daily Show's long reign and they could easily repeat this year, though Jon Stewart is still very much a factor.  However, this year also saw the rise of Jimmy Fallon and a revamped Tonight Show that has done well in the ratings and continues to deliver.  I predict a win for the Tonight Show

Miniseries: Fargo, hands down

Movie: The Normal Heart, because Emmy voters love Hollywood stars who do TV, but I love Sherlock. Sherlock is really the best

Reality: The Amazing Race used to win every year, as it should.  I pick Amazing Race to come back as it has before when Top Chef dethroned it.  The reigning champ The Voice is also a very strong contender but it really should be Amazing Race

Update: 11/26 in what was a very surprising award show.  American Horror Story and Sherlock swept the miniseries/movie acting categories (Sherlock deservedly, but surprisingly, so) and Sherlock also picked up a writing award.  Other surprises: Netflix shutout, Ty Burrell a two-time winner, Fargo and The Normal Heart go 0/10 acting awards