The Oscars 2016

I don't know if I'll ever come close to my personal best of 23/24 at the 2014 ceremony, especially when there are so many tight races with no obvious front runner. With the PGA, DGA and SAG unable to come to a consensus, best picture is anyone's game. This year's awards have been wrought with controversy over a second consecutive year of all-white acting nominees. The Academy even responded this year by changing the rules for voter eligibility to try to diminish the voting power of the largely old, white, retired male filmmakers. The Academy had to do something when Spike Lee, an honoree this year for lifetime achievement, said he would not attend. Will the Academy's reforms work? Not right away. It is certainly a start. It will not fix the industry wide problem--that is a lack of substantive roles for minority actors. Tackling that issue is another one entirely. Personally, I was predicting a Best Picture nomination for Straight Outta Compton and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Idris Elba from Beasts of No Nation, but it was not meant to be. Chris Rock is set to host and I trust him to break the tension in the room and actively tackle the issue with comedy.

Best Picture Likelihood of Winning
1. The Revenant
2. The Big Short
3. Spotlight
4. Room
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Picture Personal Ranking
1. The Big Short
2. Brooklyn
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Martian
5. Room
6. Spotlight
7. The Revenant
8. Bridge of Spies

Personal Top 10 of 2015
1. Steve Jobs
2. Inside Out
3. Ex Machina
4. The Big Short
5. Brooklyn
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Love & Mercy
10. Spotlight

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Honorable Mention: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Honorable Mention: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: The Big Short
Honorable Mention: Brooklyn

Best Cinematography
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win: Carol

Best Film Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Production Design
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Score
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Carol

Best Song
Will Win/Should Win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground

Best Sound Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant

Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Honorable Mention: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win: Inside Out

Best Documentary
Will Win: Amy
Should Win: The Look of Silence

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: Son of Saul, Hungary

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: Stutterer

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Update: 16/24 is worse than the 18/24 I got last year. Spotlight, which was the presumed front-runner for many months until the Golden Globes, won Best Picture. Guess I should've had a little faith. Mark Ryland beat Sylvester Stallone with a wonderfully nuanced performance. Quite frankly, he was better than Stallone anyways. Hollywood isn't as nostalgic as I thought it was. Best Visual Effects went to Ex Machina, which was a pleasant surprise. In a night when Mad Max was winning all of the below-the-line awards, it was nice to see the small indie take one. I missed on the Sound Mixing Category but the clip that they played for The Revenant was the one that I wrote about on my blog pointing out the sound mixing (some affirmation is always nice)! And Sam Smith stole Lady Gaga and Dianne Warren's Oscar. He was kind of pitchy and as far as Bond songs go, his was not even that good. And I still think that they should either perform all 5 songs, or none at all. Where's the respect for Manta Ray and Simple Song #3? That is an unfair bias. And as always, I love Chris Rock. I thought he was hilarious, relevant, and really hit the nail on the head on the race issue.