93rd Academy Awards (2021)

With cinemas closed all year, it has been a strange year for the movies. Many studios held back their biggest releases for when theatergoers are ready to return (if they ever return). Consequently, a higher proportion of the films nominated this year are available to stream from the comfort of your home. In theory, this should increase accessibility though I think it's hard to say without box office returns to point to and with streaming services keeping their viewership confidential. In any case, I hope the Oscars ceremony really makes the case for cinemas. The pandemic has proven to be an existential threat to the great theater-going tradition, which admittedly has been in decline for some years. But there's truly nothing like sitting down in a dark room full of strangers to enjoy a beautiful film.

Best Picture:
Will Win: Nomadland
My Ballot:

1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Promising Young Woman
8. Trial of the Chicago 7

My 2020 Ranking:

1. Da 5 Bloods 
2. The Personal History of David Copperfield
3. Nomadland
4. The 40-Year-Old Version
5. Minari
6. The Vast of Night
   
7. Time
8. Mank
9. Sound of Metal
10. Judas and the Black Messiah
11. Soul
12. Sylvie's Love
13. Bonus: Mangrove
14. Bonus: Hamilton
    

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actor:
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
If Chadwick were still alive, this might be a close 5-way race. But no one really stands a chance. Delroy Lindo didn't even get a nomination and he gave the best performance of the year in Da 5 Bloods.

*Best Actress:
Will Win: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
This is probably one of the closest races of the night. Anyone can win, including a former nominee, a former winner, a former 2x winner, the reigning Volpi Cup winner--and I'm picking the non-actor.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield could potentially split, even though Lakeith Stanfield really ought to be in the lead category.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Should Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)

*Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)

Best Costume Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ann Roth)

Best Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal (Mikkel EG Nielsen)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win/Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson)

Best Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Mank (Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale)

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste)

*Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: Io si (Seen), The Life Ahead (Dianne Warren)
This could be Leslie Odom Jr.'s O, 3/4 of the way to an eventual EGOT. But I'm betting on Dianne Warren to finally win on her twelfth nomination, which will incidentally put her 3/4 of the way to an EGOT too.

Best Sound:
Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal (Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortes, Michelle Couttolenc)

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: Tenet (Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley)

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: Soul

*Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: Crip Camp
Should Win: Time

Best International Film:
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Collective

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: Burrow

*Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Should Win: Do Not Split
Remember when Asghar Farhadi won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar for The Salesman? Good movie, but people really voted for it in defiance of the "Muslim ban". This is where Hong Kong's in-the-trenches Do Not Split could potentially pull an upset in response to TVB dropping the Oscars telecast, in spite of Hong Kong's Better Days being nominated for Best International Film.

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

Results: 15/23...The biggest upset of the night, apparently even for the producers, was Anthony Hopkins prevailing over the late Chadwick Boseman. Clearly, the producers were expecting Boseman to win, holding the award for last, even after Best Picture. Instead, Hopkins did not even show up, ending the show without an acceptance speech. I also missed in best actress, both screenplay categories, cinematography, song, documentary, and documentary short. Frances McDormand made the case for returning to cinemas; she is the real savior--move over Christopher Nolan.