My Emmy Picks 2015

It has been a great year in television, which makes choosing awards all the more difficult. SNL alum Andy Samberg is hosting the Emmys telecast.

Comedy:

Comedy: I'm going to pick Amazon's Transparent to become the first streaming show to win the big award.  The first season came out a while ago at this point, but it is as relevant as ever in our ever changing society that has put Caitlyn Jenner in the public eye.  Transparent will have to fend off five-time defending champ Modern Family which is chasing a historic sixth win, but based on its lack of nominations in directing and writing and just two supporting actors, it seems that love for Modern Family is waning.

Actor: Jeffrey Tambor hands down for Transparent.

Actress: You should never bet against Julia Louis-Dreyfus, but I'm pulling for Amy Poehler to win for the final season of Parks and Recreation.  The perennial bridesmaid, Poehler deserves to finally win for playing the neurotic Leslie Knope.  The other Amy, Amy Schumer, is also having a phenomenal year--but I think the nomination for sketch comedy show is the win.

Supporting Actor: Tituss Burgess in Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt is hilarious and he should hold off two-time winner Ty Burrell.

Supporting Actress: Allison Janney wins all the time, and with the popularity of Modern Family declining, I do not think Julie Bowen will beat her.

Directing: Transparent

Writing: Transparent

Drama:
Drama: This is Mad Men's year to win it all back.  Going out with a phenomenal final season and an extremely well received finale, I can't imagine it losing.  Mad Men going for a fifth win should break the tie for most wins in this category.

Actor: Jon Hamm's Don Draper has never won in this category, though he is always nominated. This is the year it'll finally happen.

Actress: This is probably the hardest category to predict.  Tatiana Maslany finally broke through for her roles in Orphan Black. Robin Wright took a front seat this season in House of Cards. And Elisabeth Moss has never won for her role in Mad Men.  But I think this year we will see the first African-American to win this award.  Viola Davis is carrying the torch for Shondaland, but my pick is Taraji P. Henson leading the way for her highly acclaimed but Emmy-snubbed show Empire.

Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks for Better Call Saul gets more screen time than he used to in Breaking Bad, but I think Peter Dinklage will take home his second Emmy for Game of Thrones.

Supporting Actress: I think Lena Headey will win for Game of Thrones so long as Emilia Clarke (also Game of Thrones) doesn't split the vote.  In which case, Uzo Aduba will win in the supporting category after winning last year as a guest actress (albeit in a "comedy").

Directing: Mad Men (Person to Person-- the finale)

Writing: Game of Thrones (Mother's Mercy--the finale)

Movie/Mini:
Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge (HBO's category to lose)

Actor: Mark Rylance for Wolf Hall, though David Oyelowo could pull off a win after being snubbed last year for Selma

Actress: Frances McDormand for Oliver Kitteridge

Supporting Actor: Bill Murray for Olive Kitteridge

Supporting Actress: MoNique for Bessie because the three American Horror Story actresses will cancel each other out.

Directing: Olive Kitteridge

Writing: Olive Kitteridge

Reality Competition: Amazing Race is always favored to win and it always should

Variety Sketch: SNL finally has a category that it will dominate year after year, but this year belongs to Inside Amy Schumer. Key & Peele in its final season will have to settle for the nomination. SNL already received numerous awards for its 40th anniversary special, so voters will not feel obligated to award SNL in an anniversary year here.

Variety Talk: This is the other impossible category to predict. Three of these shows are no longer on the air. And two of their hosts are no longer on TV.  I don't think Jon Stewart will win because Colbert has been on a streak lately. But I think David Letterman will take home the trophy for his triumphal last season in a storied career. And John Oliver always has next year when the competition will be a little thinner.

Update: A measly 13/24. This was HBO's night, with a clean sweep in comedy, drama and limited series. Game of Thrones triumphed over Mad Men (also for writing), so the tie still stands at 4 for most Emmys for best drama. Game of Thrones with 12 wins has the record for most wins in a single year for a series.  Jon Hamm finally won his first Emmy rightfully, marking the first and only acting Emmy for Mad Men. Uzo Aduba won for a second year in a row for the same role, though this time as a dramatic actress. Viola Davis becomes the first African American to win Best Actress in a Drama. Veep triumphed over Modern Family, so the tie still stands at 5 for most Emmys for best comedy. Allison Janney is now tied with Ed Asner for most performance Emmy wins. Amazing Race fell to The Voice. And Jon Stewart went out on top.

Emmy Nominations 2015

Wow. So the Emmy nominations did a lot of things right, and also sprung a bunch of surprises (some good, some strange, some bad, as usual).  Game of Thrones leads the way with a whopping 24 nominations.  Now let's break down the notables by category:

Lead Actor in a Drama

Jon Hamm is still going for his first Emmy after seven previous nominations for playing Don Draper. Now for the final season of Mad Men, I think this will be his year. Missing from this category (and many others) is Empire's leading man Terrence Howard. So we ended up with no diversity here.

Lead Actress in a Drama

Tatiana Maslany has finally garnered some recognition for her roles in Orphan Black after years of internet protests.  But her inclusion meant Juliana Margulies was left out after another fantastic season of the Good Wife.  In any case, the race probably comes down to two new powerhouses in Taraji P. Henson for Empire's lone major nomination, and Viola Davis for How to Get Away with Murder.  Either would become the first African-American to win this award.

Lead Actor in a Comedy

This category features seven actors, and yet somehow excludes perennial favorite and reigning champ Jim Parsons from Big Bang Theory. Jeffrey Tambor leads the way in a highly unique role as a transgender father.  The surprise nominee here is Anthony Anderson for black-ish.

Lead Actress in a Comedy

Lisa Kudrow is back, making two former Friends with nominations (the other is Matt LeBlanc for Episodes). Lily Tomlin edged out her costar Jane Fonda for Grace and Frankie. And Amy Schumer rightfully broke through for her groundbreaking Inside Amy Schumer. This category features no diversity, leaving out noteworthy performances from Gina Rodriguez for Jane the Virgin, Tracy Ellis Ross for black-ish, and Constance Wu for Fresh Off the Boat.  And though the Emmys showed her show Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt some love, Ellie Kemper did not pick up a nomination.

Lead Actor/Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

No huge surprises here. But a big kudos to Emma Thompson for earning a nomination for her role in the New York Philharmonic's production of Sweeney Todd, broadcast on Live From Lincoln Center. I didn't even know she qualified for the category. 

Supporting Actor/Actress in a Drama

Downton Abbey picks up two nominations, but none for the Dowager Countess Maggie Smith. Game of Thrones earns three nominations, much deserved for Peter Dinklage and Lena Headey, but none for crowd favorite Kit Harrington's Jon Snow. The Good Wife got two acting nominations as consolation, but none for Matt Czuchry, who is just as good as Alan Cumming.  Orange is the New Black gets just one nomination, now that the actresses are competing in the supporting category instead of the guest category. And for Mad Men's final season, Jon Slattery misses out, but Christina Hendricks gets her due.

Supporting Actor/Actress in a Comedy

You can tell love for Modern Family is waning because it only got two acting nominations here for Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen. Keegan-Michael Key broke through for his sketch comedy Key & Peele, taking the slot that I thought might go to Fred Armisen for another sketch comedy Portlandia. Nominations for Tituss Burgess and Jane Krakowski kind of make up for the snub of Ellie Kemper for Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.  The actress category has a whopping 8 nominees, including surprise nominee Niecy Nash for Getting On. Kate McKinnon is representing for SNL.  

Guest Actor/Actress in a Drama

The Good Wife gets just one nomination for Michael J. Fox, leaving the likes of David Hyde Pierce, Carrie Preston, Dylan Baker, Ed Asner, and Oliver Platt. Honestly, they could've filled the whole category with just actors from The Good Wife. Robert Morse failed to earn a nomination for Mad Men's final season.  Cicely Tyson is nominated for How To Get Away With Murder a day after it was announced she would be receiving a Kennedy Center Honor. Allison Janney for Masters of Sex proves her capabilities with acting nominations in drama and comedy.

Guest Actor/Actress in a Comedy

Two SNL hosts Bill Hader and Louis CK earned nominations. Christine Baranski for The Big Bang Theory and Jon Hamm for Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt earn second nominations in comedy to go with their drama nominations. Comedy legend Mel Brooks is nominated for The Comedians. 

Outstanding Reality Competition/Host

Again, Survivor and Jeff Probst are inexplicably left in the dark. 

Outstanding Variety Talk Show

This is a huge category. All the nominees are heavyweights, and it even left out some very deserving shows like Conan and Real Time with Bill Maher and The Late Late Show with James Corden. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver broke into the category with a phenomenal and important first season.  David Letterman is nominated for his final season after a storied career, and could even beat Comedy Central stalwarts Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart both also ending their runs.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Show

This was a much needed addition to the crowded Variety category. Now deserving shows Key & Peele, Portlandia, and Inside Amy Schumer join the ranks alongside SNL coming off of its 40th season.

Outstanding Limited Series or Movie

Neither of these categories are very surprising, and compared to the quality of TV series these days, these categories are a little disappointing. The critically panned Grace of Monaco even earned a nomination for Lifetime. And what about 24: Live Another Day?

Outstanding Comedy

Modern Family is going for a history-making six-peat, but it earned considerably less love this year than in previous years, landing just two acting nominations and no writing or directing nominations (not even for the episode entirely on Claire's laptop). Parks and Recreation picked up Big Bang Theory's slot for its final season.  Tina Fey returns to the category with her hilarious Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. And streaming service Amazon joined the ranks of Netflix, earning a nomination (and maybe even a win) for Transparent.

Outstanding Drama

Orange is the New Black successfully made the changeover to the drama side, giving Netflix 2 of the 7 nominations.  The Emmys continues its infatuation with Downton Abbey, otherwise leaving the networks with nothing. Even the highest rated drama Empire could not break into the category. The Good Wife is snubbed again.  And Vince Gilligan's Better Call Saul picks up where Breaking Bad left off.

My Emmy Picks 2014

Predicting the Emmys is very difficult considering the shear amount of high quality TV nowadays.  This is really a testament to the depth of the medium of television.  There are 26 categories at this Monday's Emmy telecast:

Acting

Lead Actor in a Comedy: Jim Parsons (Big Bang Theory) should repeat here in a relatively weak category

Lead Actress in a Comedy: Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), long overdue, should finally win her maiden Emmy though I would not count out Julia Louise Dreyfus (Veep) to win her third in a row

Supporting Actor in a Comedy: I pick Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family) to win his first but watch out for Tony Hale (Veep) to repeat

Supporting Actress in a Comedy: Allison Janney (Mom) also won this year for her role in Masters of Sex and could win a second, but don't underestimate the influence of Modern Family with its two-time winner Julie Bowen

Lead Actor in a Drama: It's a dead heat between Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) and Matthew McConaughey (True Detective) and I think McConaughey will win over Emmy voters though Bryan Cranston is probably the most deserving

Lead Actress in a Drama: Juliana Margulies (The Good Wife) gave her best performance yet and this will be the consolation prize for the snub in the Drama series category, but keep an eye out for Robin Wright (House of Cards)

Supporting Actor in a Drama: I see a three way race between Josh Charles (The Good Wife), Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad), and Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones).  I think Emmy voters will not pass on the chance to award Paul one last time but I would be happy to see Charles win for his final season

Supporting Actress in a Drama: Remember when Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) used to be a dead lock? But this is Anna Gunn's (Breaking Bad) race to lose.  A win for Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) would also be acceptable

Lead Actor in a Movie/Miniseries: In a very strong field, Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo) is the favorite to win

Lead Actress in a Movie/Miniseries: Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful) won a Tony for playing the same role on Broadway

Supporting Actor in a Movie/Miniseries: Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart) makes a huge transformation for his role as a man with AIDS; I would also look out for Martin Freeman (Sherlock) who could win a consolation prize here since he will likely lose in the the Lead Actor category to his costar in Fargo

Supporting Actress in a Movie/Miniseries: Allison Tolman (Fargo) has gotten the most buzz and the trio from American Horror Story will likely split voters paving the way for Tolman

Writing

Comedy: Orange is the New Black

Drama: Breaking Bad (Ozymandias, though it could easily be Felina)

Variety Special: 67th Tony Awards

Miniseries/Movie: The Normal Heart

Directing

Comedy: Modern Family

Drama: Breaking Bad

Variety Special: The Kennedy Center Honors

Miniseries/Movie: The Normal Heart 

Programs

Comedy: This probably comes down to a race between perennial favorite and four-time reigning champ Modern Family and the newcomer with the momentum Orange is the New Black.  I love Modern Family, but I'm betting on Black.

Drama: This category will mirror the Lead Actor category, but don't let the outcome of that race influence this one. Breaking Bad should edge out True Detective for its superb final season that wrapped everything up so perfectly.  Breaking Bad will go down in history as one of the best shows ever and I imagine they will go out on a high note. 

Variety: Last year, The Colbert Report ended The Daily Show's long reign and they could easily repeat this year, though Jon Stewart is still very much a factor.  However, this year also saw the rise of Jimmy Fallon and a revamped Tonight Show that has done well in the ratings and continues to deliver.  I predict a win for the Tonight Show

Miniseries: Fargo, hands down

Movie: The Normal Heart, because Emmy voters love Hollywood stars who do TV, but I love Sherlock. Sherlock is really the best

Reality: The Amazing Race used to win every year, as it should.  I pick Amazing Race to come back as it has before when Top Chef dethroned it.  The reigning champ The Voice is also a very strong contender but it really should be Amazing Race

Update: 11/26 in what was a very surprising award show.  American Horror Story and Sherlock swept the miniseries/movie acting categories (Sherlock deservedly, but surprisingly, so) and Sherlock also picked up a writing award.  Other surprises: Netflix shutout, Ty Burrell a two-time winner, Fargo and The Normal Heart go 0/10 acting awards

Emmy Nominations 2014: Who Is Missing and Who Stole Their Nominations?

Aside from reviewing movies, I will also offer my commentary on other media and entertainment. Here is who was left out of the Emmy nominations, and who took their place instead.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series
I, along with everyone else, expect this to be a close race between Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey, fresh off an Oscar win.  I do not imagine Jeff Daniels will pull off another upset.  James Spader carries his show and he's devilishly good, but does not score a nomination.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Thank goodness Juliana Margulies broke back into this category after a stellar season.  Unexpected was Lizzy Caplan, sneaking into a very crowded category for a performance that is allegedly worthy.  However, I would have expected (preferred) to see Elisabeth Moss return with her dance to "My Way" or Tatiana Maslany, who is getting all the buzz on the internet.  It was excusable to overlook Maslany once, but two years in a row just tells us that the Emmys might be out of touch.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Ricky Gervais managed to fill Jason Bateman's spot for Netflix, who scored 31 nominations (more than double its nominations last year, and more than perennial stalwart AMC).  William H. Macy successfully made the transition from Drama to Comedy for the same show.  Andy Samberg fails to convert his Golden Globe win into a nomination here.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Taylor Schilling scores a nomination here as she should.  No big surprises here.  Perhaps Amy Poehler will finally win her much-deserved Emmy, riding a win at the Golden Globes and a brilliant finale.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Silicon Valley is a big surprise in this category, stealing a spot from Golden Globe winners Girls and this year's Brooklyn Nine Nine.  And of course Parks and Recreation is often unjustly left out.  Modern Family is going for five in a row, repeating the feat that only Frasier has achieved.

Outstanding Drama Series
Downton Abbey managed to somehow keep its spot in a rather nothing-special season, a far cry from its brilliant first season.   Instead I was hoping for, praying for, and really believed The Good Wife would break back into the category for the Big Four networks after a long campaign.  Game of Thrones leads the way with 19 nominations, but in the end, it will come down to Breaking Bad's final season and newcomer True Detective, which bravely chose to enter into the Drama category instead of miniseries, where it surely would have dominated.  

Other Notables

• As usual, Survivor is inexplicably left out of the Reality Competition category. Jeff Probst, the only host on reality television that isn't just reading a teleprompter or cue cards, somehow loses out to the likes of Betty White's Off Their Rockers.
• Emmy voters pass on Emilia Clarke in favor of her costar Lena Headey in the Supporting Actress in a Drama category, rightfully so.
• Modern Family does not steal all of the Supporting spots with only three nominations, notably leaving two-time winner Eric Stonestreet out.  Though his replacements deadpan Andre Braugher and SNL alum Fred Armisen are worthy.  On the other side, Kate McKinnon picks up the SNL slack with a nomination; she is in almost every sketch.  
• Orange is the New Black scores three guest acting nominations.  They will likely fight it out.  If they split Emmy voters, an SNL host could sneak a win.  
• Miniseries and Movie are split into two categories, so Fargo does not have to compete with The Normal Heart.  Consequently, no one is forgotten.    
• The new Tonight Show gets a nomination and actually stands a serious chance against favorites The Daily Show and The Colbert Report.  But in the future, the variety category needs to be split up to allow room for brilliant shows like Key & Peele, Inside Amy Schumer, Conan, and Portlandia.  Because really Real Time and SNL do not belong in the same category.

I will post my predictions as we get closer to awards night!