The Oscars 2015

Last year, I scored 23/24 categories in a ceremony that arguably had fewer close races, missing only in the Animated Short category (who foresaw Mr. Hublot pulling the upset over Disney?).  This year, I think Disney's Feast, which was shown along with Big Hero 6, will win Oscar gold.  This will be Disney's consolation prize when it loses the Animated Feature award to Dreamworks's How to Train Your Dragon 2.

This year's race has proven difficult to predict, especially with Birdman's late victories at SAG, DGA and PGA, then Boyhood's redemption at BAFTA.  The Picture and Director categories may split for the third year in a row and it could split in either direction.  But despite Birdman's late resurgence, it is appearing unlikely that Michael Keaton will be able to upset Eddie Redmayne.

Emcee extraordinaire Neil Patrick Harris hosts this year's ceremony, which will be filled with musical performances. Here are my full predictions, including who will win, should win (in my opinion), and honorable mentions for other standouts in the category:

Best Picture Likelihood of Winning
1. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Whiplash
5. American Sniper
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. The Theory of Everything

Best Picture Personal Ranking
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
4. Boyhood
5. The Theory of Everything
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. American Sniper

Best Director
Will win/Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman & Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress
Will win/Should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Honorable Mention: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything & Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Best Actor
Will win/Should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Honorable Mentions: Michael Keaton, Birdman & Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Supporting Actress
Will win/Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor
Will win/Should win: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Honorable Mention: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Honorable Mentions: Birdman & Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win/Should win: Whiplash
Honorable Mention: The Theory of Everything

Best Cinematography
Will win/Should win: Birdman

Best Costume Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing
Will win/Should win: Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Whiplash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Production Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Score
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar

Best Song
Will win: Glory, Selma
Should win: Lost Stars, Begin Again

Best Sound Editing
Will win/Should win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing
Will win/Should win: Whiplash

Best Visual Effects
Will win/Should win: Interstellar
Honorable Mention: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature
Will win/Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Honorable Mention: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary
Will win: Citizenfour

Best Foreign Film
Will win: Ida, Poland
Honorable Mention: Relatos Salvajes (Wild Tales), Argentina

Best Animated Short
Will win: Feast

Best Live Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Check out the article I wrote for the JHU News-Letter with some of my predictions for the Oscars: http://www.jhunewsletter.com/2015/02/19/best-picture-nominees-compete-for-2015-oscars-18833/

Update: So 18/24 isn't so bad but definitely not as well as I was hoping for.  Birdman is the big winner tonight, with Alejandro Inarritu winning 3 statues himself.  Boyhood goes home with just one award for Patricia Arquette, leaving Richard Linklater nothing.  And Wes Anderson's film gets a surprise win in score to complement its artistic awards, but Wes Anderson himself goes home empty handed.  And NPH was great as expected.

Predicting the Oscar Nominations 2015

I will be without access to the internet when the Oscar nominations come out on January 15. So here are my predictions for the nominees in some of the major categories a little early. (Things I've seen already in bold)

Edit: Whiplash was determined to qualify in the adapted screenplay category so I revised my prediction.  Also,  I no longer believe that Unbroken will be nominated for best picture, so I chose Nightcrawler instead.

Best Picture- up to 10 nominees
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Selma
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Whiplash
7. The Grand Budapest Hotel (My favorite so far)
8. Foxcatcher
9. Nightcrawler
10. Into the Woods

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater- Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu- Birdman
3. Ava Duvernay- Selma
4. Morten Tyldum- The Imitation Game
5. Wes Anderson- The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton- Birdman
3. Benedict Cumberbatch- The Imitation Game
4. David Oyelowo- Selma
5. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nightcrawler

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore- Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon- Wild
3. Felicity Jones- The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike- Gone Girl
5. Amy Adams- Big Eyes

Best Supporting Actor
1. JK Simmons- Whiplash
2. Edward Norton- Birdman
3. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke- Boyhood
5. Robert Duvall- The Judge

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette- Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley- The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone- Birdman
4. Meryl Streep- Into the Woods
5. Jessica Chastain- A Most Violent Year

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Gone Girl
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Whiplash
4. The Imitation Game
5. Into the Woods

Update: I scored 7/8 in the best picture category, 4/5 in the best director category, 3/5 for best actor, 4/5 for best actress, all 5 for best supporting actor, 4/5 for best supporting actress, 4/5 for best original screenplay, 3/5 for best adapted screenplay. 

Gone Girl (2014)

Gillian Flynn pens the screen adaptation of her own best-selling novel.  As the original author, she has an intimate knowledge of the characters' complex mindsets and emotions.  In a very unique manner of storytelling, the audience is given a first person account by Affleck's Nick in the present, and a first person account by Pike's Amy in the past through diary entries. The two separated by stylistic fades to black--both presenting biased narratives.  In this way, the story unravels at a very deliberate pace, with reveals around every corner.

Adding to the intense level of suspense is the soundtrack by frequent David Fincher collaborators Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails.  The electronic sounds are ominous; they creep up on you and the tension builds mirroring the film perfectly.  Even if not terribly musical in the traditional sense, the score is so fitting and integral to the foreboding ambiance of the movie.

On the acting front, Rosamund Pike stands out in an excellent cast.  Without giving too much away, her character's mental state is quite complicated but she does a very good job.  Ben Affleck, too, acts convincingly as the "concerned" husband who is under close scrutiny for his wife's disappearance. And of course, thanks to David Fincher's direction, this all comes together eerily well.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (2013)

I'm a sucker for puns and this movie is just chock full of them, one after another.  The food that once rained down from the skies comes to life, each as a different appropriately named animal.  It's kind of like the animated food/animal version of Jurassic Park.  They create their own ecosystem and of course we can leave it to the evil corporations to destroy it.  There are some funny jokes but as far as animated flicks go, it does not have the emotion that you'd find in a Pixar movie or even in its predecessor.  The original was...well, original (though based on a book).  The sequel was less so, and not really necessary.    

Smurfs 2 (2013)

Katy Perry's singing voice isn't the best, but her speaking voice as Smurfette is just unbearably annoying.  There were lots of recognizable voices behind the little blue creatures.  The only one that really made me laugh was George Lopez as Grouchy Smurf.  Jayma Mays has a funny bit disguised as Audrey Hepburn.  Hank Azaria's awkward gargantuan villain did not make me laugh either, but he gave a valiant effort as he always does. Usually, Neil Patrick Harris makes things better, but he really isn't given much to work with.  For the record, I have never really been a fan of the Smurfs cartoon.  They were creepy and they still are.