97th Academy Awards (2025)

This Oscars season has been a wild ride. It was only in the last few weeks that a real front-runner emerged. There were probably up to six nominees that had the lead at some point this month. Notably, the most nominated movie (an inexplicable 13!) Emilia Perez no longer stands a chance thanks to the stunningly vitriolic comments from its star Karla Sofia Gascon. I'm not hosting an Oscars watch party this year because my friend Chelsey beat me to the punch, and she has rented out a bar so it's getting serious. I will be attempting to bring the least transportable thing possible: ice cubes, molded in the shape of the Oscars statue. I've spent the last several days making ice. Hopefully they don't all melt by the time I get there.

My Top Movies

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Challengers
3. Sing Sing
4. Problemista
5. Hit Man
6. Anora
7. A Real Pain
8. Nickel Boys
9. Exhibiting Forgiveness
10. The Brutalist
11. Robot Dreams
12. La Chimera
13. Between the Temples
14. Close Your Eyes

Best Picture

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Wicked
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Nickel Boys
8. Emilia Perez
9. The Substance
10. I'm Still Here

Best Director
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Honorable Mention: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Best Actress
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Should Win: Mikey Madison, Anora

Best Actor
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: Anora
Honorable Mention: A Real Pain

Best Cinematography
Will Win/Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win: Wicked

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: Anora

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Substance
Should Win: A Different Man
Probably the tightest Makeup and Hairstyling category there's ever been, with all 5 nominees featuring especially distinctive makeup.

Best Production Design
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Score
Will Win/Should Win: The Brutalist

Best Song
Will Win: The Journey, The Six Triple Eight
What better time to finally honor Diane Warren than right now to deny the win to Emilia Perez, a musical without any good songs or really any melody to speak of.

Best Sound
Will Win: Wicked

Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win: The Wild Robot

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: No Other Land

Best International Film
Will Win: I'm Still Here
I haven't gotten a chance to see The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which I suspect would've been my pick if for no other reason the enormous sacrifice that Mohammad Rasoulof made for his important art.

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Magic Candies

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Should Win: Incident

Best Live Action Short
Will Win/Should Win: A Lien

Results: 15/23 was good enough for third place at Chelsey's wonderful Oscars party at Halyards. Loved being able to celebrate the Oscars with a few dozen other movie lovers who hooted and hollered throughout the ceremony. Lots of people happy with the Anora sweep, and pleasantly surprised by Mikey Madison. Conan O'Brien killed it as expected--give that man a show! The opening Oz medley was brilliant. And lots of moments to bring tears to your eyes: LA montage, No Other Land, Zoe Saldana, Paul Tazewell, etc. Most of the speeches were great, shoutout to Kieran Culkin. Adrien Brody droned on too long and there was some weird mansplaining in the Animated Short category. Weird that they chose to sing 3 Bond songs but couldn't find time for the actual Best Song nominees. And who would've guessed we'd get two songs from the Wiz?! And Queen Latifah, who doesn't really sing much anymore.

96th Academy Awards (2024)

In the year of Barbenheimer, I think it's safe to say the movies are back. Barbie was indisputably the short-term victor, but Oppenheimer will have the last laugh. And this was in a year Hollywood shut down thanks to twin strikes by WGA and SAG. Shawn Fain may be the face of labor in America, but Fran Drescher's rousing speech that made the rounds on social media is the defining image of the labor movement. She has the advantage of being an actor of course, but I was genuinely moved by her advocacy for the cause. And even more than The Nanny, this will be her legacy. A note to Jimmy Kimmel; in reference to Anatomy of a Fall, he should deliver his monologue with an instrumental version of 50 Cent's P.I.M.P. blasting over him. 

My Top 10:

1. A Thousand and One
2. Past Lives
3. The Boy and the Heron
4. The Holdovers
5. American Fiction
6. Oppenheimer
7. Monster
8. Asteroid City
9. How to Blow Up a Pipeline
10. Killers of the Flower Moon
11. Poor Things
12. All of Us Strangers

Honorable Mentions: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, Blackberry, You Hurt My Feelings, The Promised Land, Dicks: The Musical

Best Picture:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers
6. Anatomy of a Fall
7. Past Lives
8. The Zone of Interest
   
9. American Fiction
10. Maestro

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Best Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Honorable Mention: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor:
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Honorable Mention: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Honorable Mention: Charles Melton, May December

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Past Lives

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Barbie

Best Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win/Should Win: Maestro

Best Production Design:
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Honorable Mention: Asteroid City

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: Oppenheimer
Honorable Mention: The Boy and the Heron

Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: What Was I Made For? by Billie Eilish, Barbie

Best Sound:
Will Win/Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: The Creator

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best International Film:
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: Perfect Days

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: The ABC of Book Banning
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win/Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Result: I scored a paltry 15/23, placing seventh in my Oscars pool (congrats to Stephen with 20!). Emma Stone ended up breaking the 3-way tie. I'm not mad though about my errors because I loved the American Fiction screenplay, and the Poor Things production design and costume design and makeup/hairstyles and The Last Repair Shop and the Godzilla Minus One VFX. Also kind of hilarious that Hayao Miyazaki and WEs Anderon didn't show up.

I think it is notable that five distinct foreign language features won Oscars outside the International category: Anatomy of a Fall (screenplay), The Zone of Interest (sound), The Boy and the Heron (animation), 20 Days in Mariupol (documentary) and Godzilla: Minus One (VFX), reflecting the real impact the internationalization of the voting body over the last several years has had. Love that Justine Triet walked up to P.I.M.P in her Nicky-Kidman-at-an-AMC-getup.

I think the other story here is the non-story that Barbie's snubs became. Though there was much uproar over the snubs of Greta Gerwig for director and Margot Robbie for lead actor at the time nominations came out, it did not result in voters trying to make up for it in the final voting. Even Jimmy Kimmel noted that it was only the fault of the folks in the room. In the below-the-line craft categories where I had predicted Barbie victories, they lost all of them to Poor Things (probably an early indicator that Emma would topple Lily). The lone category Gerwig was nominated for in adapted screenplay ended up going to American Fiction, something of an upset, but a clear indication that the voters were not going for Barbie.  

95th Academy Awards (2023)

It's a landmark year for Asians in the movies. Sure we had Minari, The Farewell, Crazy Rich Asians, Parasite won it all in a memorable surprise. But the arrival of Everything Everywhere All at Once, both a indie box office smash and now the prohibitive front runner, signals a new era. The movie boasts no fewer than 4 acting nominees, three of whom are of Asian descent, including Ke Huy Quan who returns to the screen after two decades unable to find work in front of the camera in Hollywood. The legendary James Hong got a moment of glory at the SAG Awards too. And let's not forget Hong Chau nominated for The Whale. The NYT even ran a feature on the unprecedented number of Asian nominees across the board. It has been a long time since the front runner for Best Picture has been such a popular film, and I don't know that the nominees have ever included so many box office successes--it's an exciting year.

Tyler's Top 10:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Tar
3. Decision to Leave
4. The Fabelmans
5. Armageddon Time
6. Petite Maman
7. Triangle of Sadness
8. The Northman
9. Aftersun
10. Turning Red
    

Honorable Mentions: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Top Gun: Maverick, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, The Quiet Girl, Fire of Love, Living, Navalny, Avatar: The Way of Water, Puss in Boots:The Last Wish, Vengeance

Best Picture (prediction):

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Tar
8. Triangle of Sadness
9. Elvis
10. Women Talking

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Cate Blanchett, Tar

Best Actor
Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Living

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Tar

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Empire of Light

Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Babylon

Best Film Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Honorable Mention: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: The Whale

Best Production Design
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Score
Will Win/Should Win: Babylon

Best Original Song
Will Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR
Should Win: Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound
Will Win/Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Should Win: Turning Red

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love

Best International Film
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Should Win: The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Best Animated Short
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win: Ice Merchants

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Should Win: Haulout

Best Live Action Short
Will Win/Should Win: Le Pupille

Update: 17/23, just enough to win my Oscars pool.  I hosted a little Oscar party with a themed menu. It was a big hit, if I do say so myself. It was a great ceremony with lots of memorable wins for Asians/Asian-Americans, including Judy Chin for Best Makeup and Hairstyling who went to middle school with mom. EEAAO came away with a record six statues above-the-line, and A24, no longer the indie upstart, won all six of the top awards. Hopefully we can expect to see more of these beautiful, wonderful, diverse, niche movies being made.

94th Academy Awards (2022)

There is much to be outraged over this year's Oscars. The Academy seems to misunderstand who the Oscars are for. ABC may be partly to blame there. They're chasing ratings, and in their quest for the ever elusive audience, they cut 8 awards from the live ceremony, severely disrespecting the behind-the-scenes work that goes into the magic of movie making. Actually, this will make no difference to the general audience who won't tune in anyways. And it will make all the difference to the loyal cinephiles who await the Oscars like the Super Bowl. They somehow managed to find time to sing We Don't Talk About Bruno, which isn't even nominated, and do a tribute to The Godfather but can't present all the awards (and why isn't Van Morrison singing his nominated song from Belfast)? The truth of the matter is that we like the long, boring Oscars. We like the inside Hollywood-ness of it, ratings be damned. Expanding the Best Picture category was supposed to make room for "popular movies" but the good voters of the Academy justly rejected that notion and instead has gravitated toward more internationa smaller, quality fare (see: Parasite and Drive My Car). The Academy hit back by presenting a Twitter-voted award for popular movie; god only knows what will win that. Again, not that it matters. Americans have spoken with their wallets. They want to watch Marvel and Netflix. They're not interested in the quality cinema worthy of awards. They're not coming back. And we shouldn't pander to them. The Oscars aren't for them. The logo of MGM reads Ars gratia artis, Art for art's sake. The relevancy of awards is not about money or ratings, but the art of the craft.

Tyler's Top 10:

1. Spencer
2. C'mon C'mon
3. The Rescue
4. CODA
5. West Side Story
6. King Richard
   
7. Licorice Pizza
8. In the Heights
9. The Mitchells vs. The Machines
10. Drive My Car

Honorable mentions: Cruella, A Hero, tick, tick...Boom!, The Hand of God, Zola, The Green Knight, Parallel Mothers, Dune, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Worst Person in the World, In the Same Breath, I'm Your Man, The Harder They Fall

Best Picture (prediction):

1. CODA
2. Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. Drive My Car
5. Dune
6. West Side Story
7. King Richard
8. Licorice Pizza
9. Don't Look Up
10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director:
Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Best Actress:
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Honorable Mention: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...Boom!

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Ariana Debose, West Side Story
Honorable Mention: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: CODA
Should Win: the infamously unadaptable Dune, or Drive My Car melding three short stories together

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Belfast
Should Win: Licorice Pizza

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: West Side Story

Best Costume Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Cruella

Best Film Editing:
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: tick, tick...Boom!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Dune

Best Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Dune

Best Score:
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song:
Will Win: Dos Oruguitas, Encanto
Should Win: Be Alive, King Richard
Biggest Snub of the Night: We Don't Talk About Bruno, Encanto

Best Sound:
Will Win/Should Win: Dune

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: Dune

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win: Encanto
Should Win: The Mitchells vs the Machines

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: Summer of Soul
Other Biggest Snub of the Night: The Rescue

Best International Film:
Will Win/Should Win: Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Robin Robin
Should Win: The Windshield Wiper

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win/Should Win: The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Should Win: Please Hold

Update: I scored 20/23. Not bad, but I lost our pool to Helena, who went 22/23, missing only the dreaded Animated Short category, the same one I missed in 2014. Of course, all anyone talked about was Will Smith and Chris Rock.It was a bad look for everybody. Definitely the most buzzed about Oscars of all time. That's what they were going for, right?

93rd Academy Awards (2021)

With cinemas closed all year, it has been a strange year for the movies. Many studios held back their biggest releases for when theatergoers are ready to return (if they ever return). Consequently, a higher proportion of the films nominated this year are available to stream from the comfort of your home. In theory, this should increase accessibility though I think it's hard to say without box office returns to point to and with streaming services keeping their viewership confidential. In any case, I hope the Oscars ceremony really makes the case for cinemas. The pandemic has proven to be an existential threat to the great theater-going tradition, which admittedly has been in decline for some years. But there's truly nothing like sitting down in a dark room full of strangers to enjoy a beautiful film.

Best Picture:
Will Win: Nomadland
My Ballot:

1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Promising Young Woman
8. Trial of the Chicago 7

My 2020 Ranking:

1. Da 5 Bloods 
2. The Personal History of David Copperfield
3. Nomadland
4. The 40-Year-Old Version
5. Minari
6. The Vast of Night
   
7. Time
8. Mank
9. Sound of Metal
10. Judas and the Black Messiah
11. Soul
12. Sylvie's Love
13. Bonus: Mangrove
14. Bonus: Hamilton
    

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actor:
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
If Chadwick were still alive, this might be a close 5-way race. But no one really stands a chance. Delroy Lindo didn't even get a nomination and he gave the best performance of the year in Da 5 Bloods.

*Best Actress:
Will Win: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
This is probably one of the closest races of the night. Anyone can win, including a former nominee, a former winner, a former 2x winner, the reigning Volpi Cup winner--and I'm picking the non-actor.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield could potentially split, even though Lakeith Stanfield really ought to be in the lead category.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Should Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)

*Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)

Best Costume Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ann Roth)

Best Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal (Mikkel EG Nielsen)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win/Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson)

Best Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: Mank (Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale)

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste)

*Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: Io si (Seen), The Life Ahead (Dianne Warren)
This could be Leslie Odom Jr.'s O, 3/4 of the way to an eventual EGOT. But I'm betting on Dianne Warren to finally win on her twelfth nomination, which will incidentally put her 3/4 of the way to an EGOT too.

Best Sound:
Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal (Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortes, Michelle Couttolenc)

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: Tenet (Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley)

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: Soul

*Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: Crip Camp
Should Win: Time

Best International Film:
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Collective

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: Burrow

*Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Should Win: Do Not Split
Remember when Asghar Farhadi won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar for The Salesman? Good movie, but people really voted for it in defiance of the "Muslim ban". This is where Hong Kong's in-the-trenches Do Not Split could potentially pull an upset in response to TVB dropping the Oscars telecast, in spite of Hong Kong's Better Days being nominated for Best International Film.

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

Results: 15/23...The biggest upset of the night, apparently even for the producers, was Anthony Hopkins prevailing over the late Chadwick Boseman. Clearly, the producers were expecting Boseman to win, holding the award for last, even after Best Picture. Instead, Hopkins did not even show up, ending the show without an acceptance speech. I also missed in best actress, both screenplay categories, cinematography, song, documentary, and documentary short. Frances McDormand made the case for returning to cinemas; she is the real savior--move over Christopher Nolan.

The Oscars 2020

My Top 12:
1. The Farewell
2. Amazing Grace
3. Parasite
4. Pain and Glory
5. Little Women
6. Booksmart
7. High Flying Bird
8. Ad Astra
9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
10. Jojo Rabbit
11. Uncut Gems
12. Marriage Story

This year, Lulu Wang's The Farewell got snubbed across the board. Adam Sandler should have been nominated for Best Actor. And Booksmart should have gotten a writing nomination. But alas these are the nominees we got...


Best Picture Personal Ballot:
1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Marriage Story
5. Joker
6. 1917
7. The Irishman
8. Ford v. Ferrari
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


Best Picture Prediction:
1. 1917 (can it win without a Film Editing nom?)
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Marriage Story
6. Joker
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v. Ferrari


Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Best Actress:
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Best Actor:
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Should Win: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory but they're all really great

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story but Florence Pugh, Little Women is delightful

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (he is the epitome of cool, but this is actually not as good as his lead performance in Ad Astra this year)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Jojo Rabibt
Should Win: Little Women

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Parasite, but I wouldn't mind if Marriage Story won

Best Cinematography:
Will Win/Should Win: 1917, probably the biggest lock of the night

Best Costume Design:
Will Win: Little Women
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit

Best Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: Parasite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win/Should Win: Bombshell

Best Production Design:
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Parasite

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: Joker, but they're all good

Best Song:
Will Win: I'm Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman
Should Win: Stand Up, Harriet (that will give Cynthia Erivo an EGOT)

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: 1917

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: 1917

Best VFX:
Will Win: 1917
Should Win: The Irishman

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win/Should Win: Toy Story 4, but it has been a weird year for animation awards

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: American Factory
Should Win: For Sama

Best International Film:
Will Win/Should Win: Parasite, but I also love Pain and Glory

Best Animated Short:
Will Win/Should Win: Hair Love

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Should Win: In the Absence

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Nefta Football Club (the least predictable category)

I did decently this year. I scored 20/24. I got Live Action Short wrong, which was a tossup, but having watched the winner and my choice after the fact, I think Nefta Football Club was better. Who could've predicted that the sound categories would split? Parasite winning the night's top prize was a pleasant surprise. It's a big deal for the Academy to award a foreign language film, especially an Asian one. It's a bigger deal for the Academy than it is for the movie itself which would have passed into legend even without a win. Honestly, Bong Joon Ho's charm (4 times on stage!) and Hollywood's love for Parasite saved a pretty terrible show. It had a presenter present a presenter present a clip present Eminem--inexplicable. And Parasite lost film editing, but it won enough so I'm satisfied.

The Oscars 2019

Predictions:

Best Picture:
My top movies of 2018:
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Sorry to Bother You
3. The Old Man and the Gun
4. Black Panther
5. First Man
6. Eighth Grade
7. Won't You Be My Neighbor?
8. The Death of Stalin
9. Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
10+. The Favourite, Roma, Shoplifters, Widows

Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Black Panther

Best Director:
Will Win and Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma


Best Actress:
Will Win and Should Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Honorable Mention: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Best Actor:
Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win and Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Honorable Mention: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Adapted Screenplay: 
Will Win: Blackkklansman
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite

Best Cinematography:
Will Win and Should Win: Roma

Best Costume Design:
Will Win and Should Win: Black Panther
Honorable Mention: The Favourite

Best Editing:
Will Win and Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win: Vice (haven't seen Border or Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Production Design:
Will Win and Should Win: Black Panther
Honorable Mention: Roma

Best Score:
Will Win and Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk (I love the score and any other winner would be a travesty)

Best Song:
Will Win and Should Win: Shallow, A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody (haven't seen A Quiet Place)

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win and Should Win: First Man

Best Animation:
Will Win and Should Win: Spiderman: Into the Spider Verse (haven't seen Mirai)

Best Documentary:
Will Win: Free Solo
Should Win: Minding the Gap (haven't seen Of Fathers and Sons or Hale County This Morning, This Evening)

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Roma, Mexico
Should Win: Shoplifters, Japan (haven't seen Capernaum, Never Look Away)

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Bao

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Backup: End Game

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Fauve


Result: 20/24 isn't bad. Live Action Short and Score are one thing. But the big upsets were in Best Actress and Best Picture. Olivia Colman is very deserving and her speech was hilarious, but who would have bet against Glenn Close, now a 7 time nominee without a win? Best Picture going to Green Book, though, is Driving Miss Daisy all over again.

The Oscars (2018)

After the fiasco that was the presentation of Best Picture last year, Jimmy Kimmel is back (and I think Pwc is too). This year's race is wide open. The Shape of Water is the leader with 13 nominations. But Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won the Golden Globe over The Shape of Water. On the one hand, Three Billboards does not have a directing nomination which should be a death knell. But remember Argo? Argo won Best Picture arguably BECAUSE voters thought Ben Affleck was snubbed and voters wanted to honor it elsewhere. That is conceivable this year too.

Best Picture
My Top Films of 2017: 

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Faces Places
4. Lady Bird
5. The Shape of Water
6. The Florida Project
7. The Meyerowitz Stories: New and Selected
8. Get Out
9. The Disaster Artist
10. Chasing Coral
11. Columbus

My Ranking:

1. Dunkirk
2. Lady Bird
3. The Shape of Water
4. Get Out
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. The Post
7. Phantom Thread
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Darkest Hour
   

My Predictions:

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour

Best Director:
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Honorable Mention: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Best Actor:
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Honorable Mention: Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

Best Actress:
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Honorable Mention: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win & Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project


Best Supporting Actress: 
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: The Disaster Artist

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Get Out
Honorable Mention: Lady Bird

Best Cinematography:
Will Win & Should Win: Blade Runner 2049


Best Costume Design:
Will Win & Should Win: Phantom Thread


Best Film Editing:
Will Win: Dunkirk
Honorable Mention: Baby Driver

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win & Should Win: Darkest Hour


Best Production Design:
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Honorable Mention: Blade Runner 2049

Best Score:
Will Win & Should Win: The Shape of Water
Honorable Mentions: Phantom Thread and Dunkirk

Best Song: (maybe the toughest category this year and I don't really love any of them)
Will Win: Mighty River, Mudbound

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: Dunkirk
Possible Spoiler: Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Honorable Mention: Blade Runner 2049

Best Documentary:
Will Win: Icarus
Should Win: Faces Places

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Square, Sweden

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win & Should Win: Coco

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Dear Basketball

Best Documentary Short: 
Will Win: Heroin(e)


Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary

Update: I scored 18/24 this year, which is a respectable 75% but...I feel like my mistakes were avoidable. If I had been less stubborn and just picked the favorites to win, I'd have a higher score. I made some easy mistakes...Always next year

My Oscars Predictions 2017

ABC finally got Jimmy Kimmel to host the Oscars. Being abroad this year, I don't know if I'll be able to watch the Oscars. I've missed all the other award shows this year. But that being said, I really ought to be able to find it. As global events in 2017, awards shows should be streamable live. If you have exclusive broadcasting rights then it is irresponsible and downright annoying to not give me live access from Italy.

This last week, I've been hurrying to watch the rest of the major nominees. And I finished just in time, seeing all the nominees from the top six categories. Almost all the screenwriting nominees too, save for 20th Century Women. We've gone to the Cineteca di Bologna every week this month. They show films in the original language there instead of dubbing them like they do everywhere else in Italy. It's worth the 30 minute trek across the city, plus it only costs 4.50 for students. This week I saw Fences, and it was my 1000th film logged on Letterboxd. It's a big milestone film for me.

Having gone to Cannes this year, I saw a lot of movies, a lot of very high quality movies and foreign movies. As a result, some of my top 10 is nowhere to be found at the Oscars, like Clash, The Handmaiden and After the Storm. With a record-tying 14 nominations, La La Land is the front-runner by far, and with very good reason. For anyone counting, I'm predicting 10 wins for La La Land, that's losses for Ryan Gosling, costume, Audition and Original Screenplay. The record is 11 for Titanic, Ben-Hur and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. But perhaps 10 is appropriate, because that's how many West Side Story got (one of my other favorites).

Best Picture (in likelihood of winning):
1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Arrival
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences

Best Picture (personal ranking):
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Fences
6. Lion
7. Manchester by the Sea
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director:
Will Win/Should Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Second Choice: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
The wunderkind will become the youngest ever winner of the Best Director Oscar at just 32. Jenkins was arguably more emotionally invested in his personal story, so I feel bad that he isn't going to win this one. Denis Villeneuve will one day get his, but this is not his year.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Should Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Natalie Portman is just divine, but Emma Stone's character is every member of the acting branch. And don't get me started on Elle. Sure, Isabelle Huppert has never been nominated for an Oscar, but Elle was just offensive on so many levels, surely liberal Hollywood felt the same way?

Best Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Second Choice: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
This is probably the closest acting race. Affleck was the favorite for a long time, especially before the sexual harassment allegations (years old allegations sunk Nate Parker's chances and I suspect it will pull down Affleck too), but Denzel is the master and has already won a Tony for this role. Some have criticized him for being too theatrical, but I don't see anything wrong with that.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win/Should Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Second Choice: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Though it's arguably a co-leading role, Davis already has a Tony for this role and will finally have her Oscar after Meryl stole her Oscar for the Help.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win/Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Second Choice: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
He may only be in a third of the film, but his performance is very affecting.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
This will be the consolation award for Barry Jenkins.

Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Hell or High Water
This is tough one. My gut says go with the La La Land bandwagon, but I think voters will choose to honor Manchester by the Sea here, a consolation prize for Kenneth Lonergan. Chazelle will have his chance to go up on stage for Direction. The Lobster fell apart in the second half. And I haven't seen 20th Century Women yet.

Cinematography:
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Silence
La La Land is just so beautifully shot that it can't lose. But I think Silence should win; it's not easy to make torture look so good.

Costume Design:
Will Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I haven't seen all the films in this category, but I'm picking the legendary Colleen Atwood.

Film Editing:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
I didn't see A Man Called Ove, but I think it must take something really special for a foreign film to get nominated in a below-the-line category. The first Star Trek movie actually won this award, if anyone remembers.

Production Design:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
Because did you see the Griffith Observatory and the party and Los Angeles? I haven't seen Passengers yet.

Best Score:
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land
This is probably the surest award of the night cause it's a musical. I haven't heard Passengers, but all the rest of the nominees are all beautiful in their own way.

Best Song:
Will Win/Should Win: City of Stars (La La Land)
I really want to see Lin Manuel Miranda win an EGOT for his song from Moana, and maybe he will if La La Land splits the vote, but I suspect he'll have more chances in the future. This is La La Land's show.

Sound Editing:
Will Win: La La Land
This is typically the loud blow-em-up category, good for Hacksaw Ridge, but I think voters will just vote La La Land down the line. I haven't seen Deepwater Horizon.

Sound Mixing:
Will Win: La La Land
I haven't seen all the nominees, but I think the musical will win the sound mixing award.

Visual Effects:
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Yes, literally the whole Jungle Book is visual effects and it looks so darn real. But it's very rare an animation is nominated for visual effects and they do some pretty amazing things too.

Animated Feature:
Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
I didn't see Moana yet, but it has been an excellent year for animation, especially in a year when the Pixar heir isn't nominated, nor Your Name (directed by the supposed new Miyazaki). I loved My Life as a Courgette, but Kubo and the Two Strings was amazing. Zootopia was great too, but more typical.

Documentary Feature:
Will Win: 13th
I've only seen 13th. I know the front runner is the towering epic OJ, but how many people actually sat through the whole thing? I think a lot of people won't vote for it because it's TV disguised as a movie. Plus, they snubbed Ava Duvernay for Selma a few years back.

Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Should Win: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
I haven't seen all of the films in this category. But Toni Erdmann was actually the funniest movie I've ever seen. In a normal presidency it would win, but Asghar Faradhi boycotting the Oscars is a better story. I think there will be a whole lot of protest votes for him in liberal Hollywood. Moreover, South Korea didn't submit The Handmaiden, Japan didn't submit After the Storm, and Egypt's The Clash wasn't nominated, some of the best movies of the year.

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: Borrowed Time
I only saw Borrowed Time and Piper and both were great.

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: Watani My Homeland
Should Win: Extremis
Watani is the only one I didn't see. But I've heard some very good things about it. Plus Syria is in the news nonstop. Extremis was the best one I saw. It was really powerful. Joe's Violin was powerful too, and I usually wouldn't bet against the Holocaust movie, but it was a little rougher around the edges. I fell asleep watching The White Helmets, sorry. And 4.1 Miles could've come straight from a 60 Minutes profile.

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: La Femme et la TGV
Haven't seen any of them so your guess is as good as mine.

Results: I scored a dismal 14/24. It was almost unthinkable that La La Land would lose the top prize but Moonlight was at least a worthy winner (though the whole envelope mishap really undermined the surprising nature of the win). I kind of saw it coming when La La Land lost both sound categories and then the film editing category too. That was a bad omen. I thought Jimmy Kimmel did very well as host. Some were predicting that Barry Jenkins would win director and La La Land would win Best Picture, but few were predicting a split the other way. Side note, I think John Legend is fine but he John Legend-ified the two songs from La La Land, and I did not like his rendition. His style is distinctive and it didn't work for these songs. And on another note, shame works. How do you get Hollywood to vote for people of color? Shame them and don't stop. There is work still to be done.

The Oscars 2016

I don't know if I'll ever come close to my personal best of 23/24 at the 2014 ceremony, especially when there are so many tight races with no obvious front runner. With the PGA, DGA and SAG unable to come to a consensus, best picture is anyone's game. This year's awards have been wrought with controversy over a second consecutive year of all-white acting nominees. The Academy even responded this year by changing the rules for voter eligibility to try to diminish the voting power of the largely old, white, retired male filmmakers. The Academy had to do something when Spike Lee, an honoree this year for lifetime achievement, said he would not attend. Will the Academy's reforms work? Not right away. It is certainly a start. It will not fix the industry wide problem--that is a lack of substantive roles for minority actors. Tackling that issue is another one entirely. Personally, I was predicting a Best Picture nomination for Straight Outta Compton and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Idris Elba from Beasts of No Nation, but it was not meant to be. Chris Rock is set to host and I trust him to break the tension in the room and actively tackle the issue with comedy.

Best Picture Likelihood of Winning
1. The Revenant
2. The Big Short
3. Spotlight
4. Room
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

Best Picture Personal Ranking
1. The Big Short
2. Brooklyn
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Martian
5. Room
6. Spotlight
7. The Revenant
8. Bridge of Spies

Personal Top 10 of 2015
1. Steve Jobs
2. Inside Out
3. Ex Machina
4. The Big Short
5. Brooklyn
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. The Martian
8. Room
9. Love & Mercy
10. Spotlight

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Honorable Mention: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Honorable Mention: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: The Big Short
Honorable Mention: Brooklyn

Best Cinematography
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win: Carol

Best Film Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Production Design
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Score
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Carol

Best Song
Will Win/Should Win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground

Best Sound Editing
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win/Should Win: The Revenant

Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Honorable Mention: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win: Inside Out

Best Documentary
Will Win: Amy
Should Win: The Look of Silence

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: Son of Saul, Hungary

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: Stutterer

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Update: 16/24 is worse than the 18/24 I got last year. Spotlight, which was the presumed front-runner for many months until the Golden Globes, won Best Picture. Guess I should've had a little faith. Mark Ryland beat Sylvester Stallone with a wonderfully nuanced performance. Quite frankly, he was better than Stallone anyways. Hollywood isn't as nostalgic as I thought it was. Best Visual Effects went to Ex Machina, which was a pleasant surprise. In a night when Mad Max was winning all of the below-the-line awards, it was nice to see the small indie take one. I missed on the Sound Mixing Category but the clip that they played for The Revenant was the one that I wrote about on my blog pointing out the sound mixing (some affirmation is always nice)! And Sam Smith stole Lady Gaga and Dianne Warren's Oscar. He was kind of pitchy and as far as Bond songs go, his was not even that good. And I still think that they should either perform all 5 songs, or none at all. Where's the respect for Manta Ray and Simple Song #3? That is an unfair bias. And as always, I love Chris Rock. I thought he was hilarious, relevant, and really hit the nail on the head on the race issue.

Predicting the 2016 Oscar Nominations

The Oscar nominations will be revealed tomorrow. And here's the thing that makes this year interesting: there is no clear front runner. It is a wide open game. Looking forward to some surprises. These are my predictions in the major categories (Things I've already seen in bold). I filled out my full predictions on Gold Derby, and the result would be a pack-leading 10 nominations for Mad Max: Fury Road, and 9 each for The Martian and Carol.

Best Picture- up to 10 nominees
1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. The Martian
4. The Big Short
5. Carol
6. Room
7. Brooklyn
8. Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Bridge of Spies
10. Straight Outta Compton

Best Director
1. Ridley Scott - The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu- The Revenant
4. Todd Haynes - Carol
5. George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
2. Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
3. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
4. Matt Damon - The Martian
5. Bryan Cranston - Trumbo

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson - Room
2. Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett - Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
5. Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actor
1. Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
2. Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
3. Sylvester Stallone - Creed
4. Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
5. Jacob Tremblay - Room

Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
2. Rooney Mara - Carol
3. Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
4. Helen Mirren - Trumbo
5. Jane Fonda - Youth

Best Original Screenplay
1. Inside Out
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Spotlight
4. Ex Machina
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Steve Jobs
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Brooklyn
5. The Big Short

Update: I scored 8/8 in Best Picture, though I technically had Carol over Bridge of Spies. 3/5 in Best Director (cause Lenny Abrahamson for Room over Ridley Scott for The Martian was a big surprise).  5/5 in Best Actor, 4/5 in Best Actress (though Alicia Vikander did get a nomination for The Danish Girl, just in the supporting category), 3/5 in Best Supporting Actor, 3/5 in Supporting Actress, 4/5 in Original Screenplay (surprised they didn't go for Tarantino cause they usually do), and 4/5 in Adapted Screenplay (I am devastated that Aaron Sorkin didn't get nominated for his brilliant screenplay). Just 67% overall in all categories.

The Oscars 2015

Last year, I scored 23/24 categories in a ceremony that arguably had fewer close races, missing only in the Animated Short category (who foresaw Mr. Hublot pulling the upset over Disney?).  This year, I think Disney's Feast, which was shown along with Big Hero 6, will win Oscar gold.  This will be Disney's consolation prize when it loses the Animated Feature award to Dreamworks's How to Train Your Dragon 2.

This year's race has proven difficult to predict, especially with Birdman's late victories at SAG, DGA and PGA, then Boyhood's redemption at BAFTA.  The Picture and Director categories may split for the third year in a row and it could split in either direction.  But despite Birdman's late resurgence, it is appearing unlikely that Michael Keaton will be able to upset Eddie Redmayne.

Emcee extraordinaire Neil Patrick Harris hosts this year's ceremony, which will be filled with musical performances. Here are my full predictions, including who will win, should win (in my opinion), and honorable mentions for other standouts in the category:

Best Picture Likelihood of Winning
1. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Whiplash
5. American Sniper
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. The Theory of Everything

Best Picture Personal Ranking
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
4. Boyhood
5. The Theory of Everything
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. American Sniper

Best Director
Will win/Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman & Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress
Will win/Should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Honorable Mention: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything & Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Best Actor
Will win/Should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Honorable Mentions: Michael Keaton, Birdman & Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Supporting Actress
Will win/Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor
Will win/Should win: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Honorable Mention: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Honorable Mentions: Birdman & Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win/Should win: Whiplash
Honorable Mention: The Theory of Everything

Best Cinematography
Will win/Should win: Birdman

Best Costume Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing
Will win/Should win: Boyhood
Honorable Mention: Whiplash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Production Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Score
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar

Best Song
Will win: Glory, Selma
Should win: Lost Stars, Begin Again

Best Sound Editing
Will win/Should win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing
Will win/Should win: Whiplash

Best Visual Effects
Will win/Should win: Interstellar
Honorable Mention: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature
Will win/Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Honorable Mention: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary
Will win: Citizenfour

Best Foreign Film
Will win: Ida, Poland
Honorable Mention: Relatos Salvajes (Wild Tales), Argentina

Best Animated Short
Will win: Feast

Best Live Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Check out the article I wrote for the JHU News-Letter with some of my predictions for the Oscars: http://www.jhunewsletter.com/2015/02/19/best-picture-nominees-compete-for-2015-oscars-18833/

Update: So 18/24 isn't so bad but definitely not as well as I was hoping for.  Birdman is the big winner tonight, with Alejandro Inarritu winning 3 statues himself.  Boyhood goes home with just one award for Patricia Arquette, leaving Richard Linklater nothing.  And Wes Anderson's film gets a surprise win in score to complement its artistic awards, but Wes Anderson himself goes home empty handed.  And NPH was great as expected.

Predicting the Oscar Nominations 2015

I will be without access to the internet when the Oscar nominations come out on January 15. So here are my predictions for the nominees in some of the major categories a little early. (Things I've seen already in bold)

Edit: Whiplash was determined to qualify in the adapted screenplay category so I revised my prediction.  Also,  I no longer believe that Unbroken will be nominated for best picture, so I chose Nightcrawler instead.

Best Picture- up to 10 nominees
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Selma
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Whiplash
7. The Grand Budapest Hotel (My favorite so far)
8. Foxcatcher
9. Nightcrawler
10. Into the Woods

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater- Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu- Birdman
3. Ava Duvernay- Selma
4. Morten Tyldum- The Imitation Game
5. Wes Anderson- The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton- Birdman
3. Benedict Cumberbatch- The Imitation Game
4. David Oyelowo- Selma
5. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nightcrawler

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore- Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon- Wild
3. Felicity Jones- The Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike- Gone Girl
5. Amy Adams- Big Eyes

Best Supporting Actor
1. JK Simmons- Whiplash
2. Edward Norton- Birdman
3. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke- Boyhood
5. Robert Duvall- The Judge

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette- Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley- The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone- Birdman
4. Meryl Streep- Into the Woods
5. Jessica Chastain- A Most Violent Year

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Gone Girl
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Whiplash
4. The Imitation Game
5. Into the Woods

Update: I scored 7/8 in the best picture category, 4/5 in the best director category, 3/5 for best actor, 4/5 for best actress, all 5 for best supporting actor, 4/5 for best supporting actress, 4/5 for best original screenplay, 3/5 for best adapted screenplay.